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A deepening rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia is forcing President Donald Trump to navigate carefully between two key Gulf allies, with billions in business deals and regional stability hanging in the balance. Unlike his 2017 intervention in the Qatar blockade, Trump has remained notably quiet on the current dispute.
Financial Stakes Complicate Diplomatic Calculus
Trump’s business empire now has significant exposure across the Gulf, creating potential conflicts of interest. His family business unveiled $10 billion in luxury developments in Saudi Arabia in January, while a luxury high-rise tower is under construction in Dubai. Additional golf resorts are planned in Qatar and Oman, with all deals reportedly tied to Dar al-Arkan, according to sources familiar with the arrangements.
A former US ambassador to a Gulf country noted that Trump “should never have picked a side during the blockade of Qatar” and emphasized that he “knows a lot more now.” The ambassador revealed that the first Trump administration “did not even know that the US had al-Udeid air base in Qatar” and was “just listening to the UAE.”
Military and Economic Battlegrounds Emerge
The UAE-Saudi split has manifested across multiple theaters with significant economic implications. In January, Saudi Arabia launched strikes on Yemeni secessionists backed by Abu Dhabi and evicted the Southern Transitional Council from southern and eastern Yemen. The conflict extends to Africa, where Riyadh is negotiating with Pakistan to supply arms to Sudan’s military against the UAE-supported Rapid Support Forces.
In Libya, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are lobbying warlord Khalifa Haftar’s family to break with the UAE and halt arms and fuel supplies to Sudanese forces. The diplomatic warfare has intensified on social media, with a Saudi newspaper publishing an opinion article last week claiming the UAE was serving as “Israel’s Trojan horse in the Arab world” and calling its foreign policy a “betrayal of God.”
Strategic Positioning and Market Implications
The catalyst for the split reportedly traces back to November, when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman lobbied Trump against the UAE over its Sudan support. Israeli and Emirati commentators have accused Riyadh of being “antisemitic” and seeking to undermine Trump’s Abraham Accords, which he considers his premier foreign policy achievement.
William Usher, a former senior Middle East analyst at the CIA, told Middle East Eye that both sides are engaged in “furious behind the scenes efforts to curry favour” with Trump. However, he noted seeing no indication that Trump is “taking a side” and questioned whether “choosing between them is strategically advantageous for the US.”
What’s Next
Current and former US and Arab officials suggest Trump’s decision-making will be influenced by personal financial considerations, given his family’s business interests spanning both nations. The outcome could significantly impact regional investment flows, defense contracting opportunities, and energy partnerships across the Gulf.
