Europe
The Fertilizer Nobody Is Watching Is About to Hit European Food Prices Hard
Urea jumped 50% since the Iran war began. Europe's spring planting season is running out of nitrogen. The fertilizer shock hasn't hit food prices yet. It will.
Europe
Europe Just Used a Third of Its Emergency Oil Reserves. There Is No Second Shot.
The IEA used a third of its emergency reserves in March. Six European countries fell below the 90-day floor. Islamabad collapsed. There is no second release at this scale.
Economy
Five EU Finance Ministers Just Revived the Windfall Tax Playbook. The Energy Industry Says It Will Not Work Twice.
Five EU finance ministers demand a windfall tax on energy firms as Brent tops $110 and eurozone inflation hits 2.5%. The ECB meets in 23 days.
Economy
Europe Has the Money. It Does Not Have the Confidence to Spend It.
Euro area saving rate stuck at 15% despite 8 ECB rate cuts. Survey shows half of households save from fear of taxes, half from income anxiety. The war made it worse.
Economy
Europe’s Energy Bill Just Doubled. The ECB Cannot Cut Rates Into an Oil Shock.
ECB held at 2.00% and raised 2026 inflation to 2.6%. Growth cut to 0.9%. Markets now price hikes, not cuts. Europe's energy import bill just doubled.
Stocks
The STOXX 600 Lost 8 Percent in Five Weeks. The Recovery Trade Is Collateral Damage.
The STOXX 600 peaked at 628 on Feb 18. Five weeks later it sits at 575. Goldman forecast 8% returns. Lagarde says markets are too optimistic. What happened.
Europe
EUR/USD Lost Four Cents in Two Months. The ECB Just Told You It Cannot Get Them Back.
EUR/USD at 1.1506, down from 1.2016 in January. ECB revised inflation to 2.6% and growth to 0.9%. The euro is pricing stagflation. Here is what it means for your book.
Economy
Europe Was Told the Energy Crisis Would Be Targeted and Temporary. The Commission Just Blocked the Only Tool That Could Make It So.
Dombrovskis warned of a stagflationary shock that could cut EU growth by 0.6pp. Hours later the Commission blocked the fiscal escape clause. G7 meets Monday.
Economy
Eurozone Industrial Output Just Fell for the Second Straight Month. The Energy Shock Has Not Even Landed Yet.
Eurozone industrial output fell 1.2% year-on-year in January as Goldman cut growth to 1%. The ZEW crashed 58.8 points. The energy shock has barely started.
Europe
The Paper Market Says $103. The Physical Market Stopped Agreeing Two Weeks Ago.
Brent at $103. WTI at $96. Physical Dubai crude is trading $38 above its paper price. One tanker crossed Hormuz on Monday. The pre-war average was 24 per day.
Economy
Four Central Banks, One Week, Zero Answers on Oil
The ECB and Bank of England both decide on March 19. Both hold. The ECB releases updated staff projections - the first since Hormuz closed.
