Europe
EUR/USD Lost Four Cents in Two Months. The ECB Just Told You It Cannot Get Them Back.
EUR/USD at 1.1506, down from 1.2016 in January. ECB revised inflation to 2.6% and growth to 0.9%. The euro is pricing stagflation. Here is what it means for your book.
Americas
Three Americas Currencies. Three Unrelated Bets. Zero Overlap.
CAD is a petro-hedge. MXN carry depends on Hormuz reopening in 60 days. BRL is an October election option. Running all three as a basket kills the edge.
Americas
The Fed Decides at 2pm. The Dot Plot Decides the Rest of Your Quarter.
The Fed holds rates at 3.50-3.75% today but the dot plot could kill what's left of the 2026 rate cut trade. Oil above $100 is writing its own policy now.
Americas
DXY Topped 100. The Dollar Isn’t Strong. It’s Just the Last Man Standing.
DXY crossed 100 on Friday. EUR/USD is at 1.1457, USD/JPY at 158, and Q4 GDP was just revised to 0.7% as core PCE hit 3.1%. Here's what's driving the dollar and what breaks the trade.
Forex
EUR/USD Is Caught Between Two Forces That Never Usually Move Together
EUR/USD fell to $1.156 as oil topped $100 and the ECB was repriced from cuts to hikes in a week. The pair is now caught between dollar safe-haven bids and ECB hawkishness, both driven by the same Iran shock.
Forex
The Yen Lost Its Safe-Haven Status in a Week. Japan Has Three Weeks of Gas Left.
USD/JPY hit 157.80. Japan imports 95% of its oil from the Middle East. It has three weeks of gas. The yen's safe-haven status just became an energy liability.
Americas
Markets Open in Hours and Nobody Knows the Price of Oil. Khamenei Is Dead and Monday Will Reprice Everything.
Iran's supreme leader is dead, Hormuz shipping has paused, and crude futures open Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. Here is what investors need before Monday's bell.
Americas
Brazil’s Minimum Wage Has Outrun Its Economy by Six to One – and the Bill Is Coming Due
Real wages up 188% since the Plano Real, productivity up 30%. With debt heading for 95% of GDP and the Selic pinned at 15%, Brazil's social model is running out of room.
Forex
China Outbuilds the US in Nuclear Submarines for the First Time — and the Gap Is Widening
China launched 10 nuclear submarines displacing 79,000 tonnes in 2021–2025, outpacing US output for the first time as American shipyards fall behind.
Europe
X Appeals €120 Million EU Fine in First Legal Test of Digital Services Act
X filed three appeals at the EU General Court challenging the first DSA fine — €120M for deceptive blue checkmarks, opaque ads, and blocked researcher access.
