Forex - Americas

Americas

Three Americas Currencies. Three Unrelated Bets. Zero Overlap.

CAD is a petro-hedge. MXN carry depends on Hormuz reopening in 60 days. BRL is an October election option. Running all three as a basket kills the edge.
Americas

The Fed Decides at 2pm. The Dot Plot Decides the Rest of Your Quarter.

The Fed holds rates at 3.50-3.75% today but the dot plot could kill what's left of the 2026 rate cut trade. Oil above $100 is writing its own policy now.
Americas

DXY Topped 100. The Dollar Isn’t Strong. It’s Just the Last Man Standing.

DXY crossed 100 on Friday. EUR/USD is at 1.1457, USD/JPY at 158, and Q4 GDP was just revised to 0.7% as core PCE hit 3.1%. Here's what's driving the dollar and what breaks the trade.
Forex

EUR/USD Is Caught Between Two Forces That Never Usually Move Together

EUR/USD fell to $1.156 as oil topped $100 and the ECB was repriced from cuts to hikes in a week. The pair is now caught between dollar safe-haven bids and ECB hawkishness, both driven by the same Iran shock.
Americas

Markets Open in Hours and Nobody Knows the Price of Oil. Khamenei Is Dead and Monday Will Reprice Everything.

Iran's supreme leader is dead, Hormuz shipping has paused, and crude futures open Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. Here is what investors need before Monday's bell.
Americas

Brazil’s Minimum Wage Has Outrun Its Economy by Six to One – and the Bill Is Coming Due

Real wages up 188% since the Plano Real, productivity up 30%. With debt heading for 95% of GDP and the Selic pinned at 15%, Brazil's social model is running out of room.