Europe
The Fertilizer Nobody Is Watching Is About to Hit European Food Prices Hard
Urea jumped 50% since the Iran war began. Europe's spring planting season is running out of nitrogen. The fertilizer shock hasn't hit food prices yet. It will.
Europe
Europe Just Used a Third of Its Emergency Oil Reserves. There Is No Second Shot.
The IEA used a third of its emergency reserves in March. Six European countries fell below the 90-day floor. Islamabad collapsed. There is no second release at this scale.
Americas
Brent Crashed 16% Overnight. Now the Hard Part Begins.
Brent crude plunged 16% after Trump's 14-day Iran ceasefire — but $93 oil and a navy-controlled Strait mean the war premium isn't gone yet. Full market analysis.
Americas
Gold Just Had Its Worst Wartime Month in 50 Years.
Gold fell 27% from its ATH during the Iran war the worst first month of any conflict in 50 years. GLD lost $9B in three weeks. JPM still targets $6,300.
Commodities
Brent Just Posted Its Steepest Monthly Gain on Record. Trump Said He Wants to Take Iran’s Oil.
Brent surged 55% in March, the largest monthly gain on record. Trump told the FT he wants to seize Kharg Island. WTI crossed $100. The war just changed shape.
Americas
Copper Lost $2,500 From Its January High. The Deficit That Caused the Rally Hasn’t Gone Anywhere.
Copper fell 17% from its $14,527 all-time high but the structural deficit hasn't budged. AI data centres need 475,000 tonnes in 2026 and mines can't keep up.
Commodities
Everyone Is Watching the Oil Price. The One That Matters Is Printed on a Bag of Urea.
Urea jumped from $490 to $700. A third of global fertiliser trade transits Hormuz. There are no strategic reserves. It is planting season. The supply is not arriving.
Commodities
Iran Just Turned the Strait of Hormuz Into a Toll Road. The Fee Is $2 Million Per Ship.
Iran is charging commercial vessels up to $2 million per voyage to transit Hormuz. There is no tariff schedule. The price is whatever Tehran says it is today.
Commodities
Gold Crashed 7% in a Day. The War Didn’t End. The Cash Did.
Gold hit $4,557 on Thursday, its worst week since 1983. The safe haven didn't fail because the world got safer. It failed because everyone needed cash at once.
Europe
The Paper Market Says $103. The Physical Market Stopped Agreeing Two Weeks Ago.
Brent at $103. WTI at $96. Physical Dubai crude is trading $38 above its paper price. One tanker crossed Hormuz on Monday. The pre-war average was 24 per day.
Commodities
Vietnam Has 20 Days of Fuel Left. The Philippines Sources 96% of Its Oil from the Gulf. The Strait Is Still Closed.
Vietnam has under 20 days of fuel reserves. The Philippines sources 96% of its oil from the Gulf. Brent is above $100 and the Strait is still closed. Here's the regional damage in numbers.
