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The biggest crash since 2022. Bitcoin has lost nearly 50% from its October peak, Fear & Greed Index drops to 11, and analysts warn of further declines to $38,000.
Thursday brought another wave of selling pressure across cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin breached the psychological $70,000 barrier and tumbled to $66,000 – its lowest level in over a year. This marks a nearly 50% decline from the record high of $126,000 reached in October 2025
Full Market Capitulation
“It’s clear the crypto market is now in full capitulation mode,” says Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau. “If previous cycles are anything to go by, this is no longer a short-term correction, but rather a transition from distribution to reset – and these typically take months, not weeks.”
Total crypto market capitalization dropped 6.4% over the past 24 hours, falling to $2.49 trillion. More concerning still, 92 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies recorded losses. Ethereum is struggling to hold above $2,100 after a 4.66% drop, demonstrating the scale of problems extends far beyond Bitcoin alone.
The current situation brings to mind a question investors were asking just weeks ago: is Bitcoin’s crash to $75,000 the start of crypto winter? The answer is becoming increasingly clear.
ETFs Hemorrhaging Billions
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $544.94 million on Wednesday. BlackRock – the largest player in the market – sold $373.44 million worth of positions in a single session. Fidelity saw outflows of $86.44 million, while Grayscale lost $41.77 million.
Total net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs have fallen below $55 billion. Ethereum ETFs weren’t spared either – outflows reached $79.48 million, reducing total inflows to $11.91 billion.
This represents a dramatic shift in sentiment, considering that just recently the market was analyzing whether Binance’s $1 billion Bitcoin purchase was signaling a market bottom. The answer, apparently, is no.
Fear Index at Historic Lows
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 11 – its lowest reading since November 22, 2025. For context, a level of 25 is already considered “extreme fear.” The current reading indicates investor panic comparable to the worst moments of previous crashes.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, leaves no illusions: “This is not a ‘bull market correction’ or ‘a dip.’ It is a full-bore, 2022-like, Leonardo-DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-style crypto winter – set into motion by factors ranging from excess leverage to widespread profit-taking by OGs.”
Whales Buy While Retail Sells
On-chain data from Glassnode reveals an interesting dichotomy. Small wallets (under 10 BTC) have been aggressively selling their positions for over a month. Retail investors are capitulating, spooked by the 44% drop from the highs.
Meanwhile, “mega-whales” – wallets holding over 1,000 BTC – are quietly accumulating. Their holdings have returned to levels not seen since late 2024. However, their purchases aren’t sufficient to halt the decline.
Notably, even nation-states are pulling back. Bhutan moved over $22 million in Bitcoin out of sovereign wallets within a week – a signal that even institutional holders are losing patience.
Miners in Crisis
The crash hasn’t spared the mining sector either. As we recently reported, US Bitcoin miners face a crisis that threatens the security of the entire network. A 38% price drop from the highs has forced many operators to sell infrastructure to AI companies or shut down operations entirely.
Mining difficulty has dropped 14% – one of the largest declines in history – indicating a massive exodus of computing power from the Bitcoin network.
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Paradoxically, the crash comes at a moment when Bitcoin should theoretically be rising. Geopolitical tensions are escalating – the Trump administration is threatening to attack Iran following the removal of Venezuela’s leader. The President is pursuing aggressive policies toward allies in Europe and Canada, threatening higher tariffs.
Gold has capitalized on this uncertainty, surpassing $5,500 per ounce. Bitcoin – marketed as “digital gold” – is heading in the opposite direction.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent further undermined confidence by testifying before the House Financial Services Committee that the Treasury has no authority to stabilize crypto markets. This is a clear signal that the administration has no intention of intervening.
It’s worth noting that a dollar decline typically revives anti-America investment themes, yet this time Bitcoin hasn’t benefited from greenback weakness.
Administration Controversies
Political controversies are complicating matters further. President Trump denied knowledge of a mysterious $500 million crypto transaction with the UAE, despite his family’s deep involvement in blockchain projects. Questions about conflicts of interest and foreign influence aren’t helping build institutional trust in the sector.
The crypto regulatory landscape is undergoing dramatic shifts where political ethics collide with institutional adoption. This regulatory uncertainty is one of the factors restraining new capital inflows.
What’s Next?
Stifel analysts warn that Bitcoin could fall as low as $38,000 if the current trend persists. Barry Bannister, the firm’s chief equity strategist, points to historical patterns – previous crashes in 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 ended with 70-80% declines from peaks.
With the current peak at $126,000, an 80% correction scenario would mean a Bitcoin price around $25,000.
Nic Puckrin from Coin Bureau predicts Bitcoin will fight to defend the $70,000 level. If that barrier is breached, the next support zone is $55,700-$58,200 – the potential bear market bottom.
The market has already lost over $600 billion in capitalization from its highs. As last week demonstrated, when $600 billion vanished from the market while Hyperliquid simultaneously surged 71%, there are always winners in crypto – but most retail investors aren’t among them.
Long-Term Perspective
For Bitcoin believers, there’s some consolation. Every previous crash – from Mt. Gox in 2014, through the ICO bubble in 2018, to the FTX scandal in 2022 – eventually led to new all-time highs. Investors who bought virtually every dip since 2009 ultimately came out ahead.
However, as financial advisors caution, cryptocurrencies should comprise no more than 5% of an investment portfolio. Given current volatility – and the real prospect of further declines – this rule takes on particular significance.
The question is no longer whether crypto winter has arrived. The question is: how long will it last, and how much further will we fall?
