Can Cuba Survive Its Worst Fuel Crisis in Decades?

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Cuba’s tourism industry faces collapse as the Caribbean island runs critically low on jet fuel, forcing Russia to evacuate its citizens while the broader energy sector grapples with supply disruptions and shifting trade patterns across multiple commodities markets.

Russian Airlines Flee Cuba’s Fuel Desert

Illustration: Can Cuba Survive Its Worst Fuel Crisis in Decades?

Moscow announced plans to evacuate Russian tourists from Cuba within days as the island’s fuel crisis reaches critical levels. Russian aviation authorities confirmed two airlines serving the Caribbean destination will operate outbound-only flights before suspending all services. Cuban aviation authorities have warned the country is running dangerously low on jet fuel, threatening to derail the tourism industry that serves as a vital economic lifeline. 

The crisis deepened when Air Canada canceled all flights to Cuba, citing fuel access problems linked to US efforts to choke off the island’s oil supplies. Cuba was already enduring its worst economic crisis in decades before losing Venezuelan oil shipments following the US overthrow of Cuban ally Nicolas Maduro. The fuel shortage has left the island with stark choices between traditional energy sources like charcoal and modern alternatives like solar panels.

Venezuela’s Oil Finds New Routes Through Washington

In a remarkable turn of events, Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that China has purchased Venezuelan oil that was previously acquired by the US government following Maduro’s seizure of power. Speaking from Caracas, Wright revealed that “China has already bought some of the crude that’s been sold by the US government,” though he provided no additional details about the transactions.

Wright indicated that “legitimate Chinese business deals under legitimate business conditions” would be acceptable when asked about potential joint ventures in Venezuela. The development marks a significant shift in global oil trade patterns, with Venezuelan crude now flowing through US channels to reach Chinese refineries. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said he was unfamiliar with Wright’s specific comments about the oil purchases.

Palm Oil Markets Eye RM4,000 Recovery

While energy markets face disruption, palm oil futures present a more optimistic outlook. Industry expert Dorab Mistry from Godrej International forecasts crude palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives will trade between RM3,800 and RM4,000 per tonne from January through July 2026. The prediction comes with the caveat that weather-related factors such as drought could alter the trajectory.

Mistry noted that CPO futures below RM4,000 are unattractive to listed palm oil companies and shareholders, suggesting strong support levels. Malaysian palm oil production exceeded expectations in 2025, reaching over 20 million tonnes versus the anticipated 19.3 million tonnes, thanks to adequate plantation manpower and favorable weather conditions. However, palm stocks in Malaysia have swelled beyond three million tonnes, double the expected two million tonnes.

Policy Debates Shape Energy Future

The broader energy landscape faces scrutiny as policy think tanks weigh in on future directions. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has drawn criticism for urging increased drilling and reduced renewable energy investment, despite evidence that clean energy offers cheaper alternatives for consumers. Critics note the institute’s ties to Saudi Arabia funding and substantial donations from Oracle founder Larry Ellison, a Trump ally and AI advocate, raising questions about the objectivity of its energy policy recommendations.

The institute’s report contradicts mounting evidence that renewable energy sources provide more cost-effective solutions for reducing energy bills, highlighting the ongoing tension between fossil fuel interests and clean energy advocates in shaping global energy policy.

Sources: The Guardian, South China Morning Post, Koreatimes, Thestar, Japan Times

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Paul Dawes
Paul Dawes
Currency & Commodities Strategist — Paul Dawes is a Currency & Commodities Strategist at Finonity with over 15 years of experience in financial markets. Based in the United Kingdom, he specializes in G10 and emerging market currencies, precious metals, and macro-driven commodity analysis. His expertise spans institutional FX flows, central bank policy impacts on currency valuations, and safe-haven dynamics across gold, silver, and platinum markets. Paul's analysis focuses on identifying capital flow turning points and translating complex cross-asset relationships into actionable market intelligence.

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