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Carrefour has unveiled its third strategic plan under CEO Alexandre Bompard, staking the group’s future on Brazil with 70 new Atacadão stores and a 20% market share target by 2030 — but the market responded by sending shares down 4.6% to the bottom of the CAC 40 after the retailer simultaneously reported a decline in Brazilian operating income and analysts at Oddo BHF called the 2030 targets “uneven.”
The Plan
Carrefour 2030, presented to investors on Wednesday alongside full-year 2025 results, concentrates the group on three core markets: France (targeting 25% market share), Brazil (20%) and Spain (reinforcing its number-two position). Everything else is being sold. The retailer disposed of its Italian operations in July, announced the sale of 478 Romanian stores to Paval Holding for €823 million last week, and has hired Deutsche Bank to find a buyer for its Argentine business — where seven offers have been received at valuations between $800 million and $1.5 billion, including bids from Coto, Cencosud and Francisco de Narváez.
In Brazil, the plan calls for 70 new Atacadão cash-and-carry stores by 2030, bringing the total to 455 units. Atacadão operated 380 self-service stores and 34 wholesale delivery outlets at the end of March 2025. The expansion will be led by Pablo Lorenzo, the Argentine executive who took over as president of Carrefour Brazil and Latin America in July 2025, bringing three decades of experience within the group. The commercial model will be strengthened through fresh product development, B2B e-commerce and financial services, with a target to double Atacadão’s e-commerce gross merchandise value by 2030.
Bulnez and Private Labels
Carrefour will launch a new entry-price private label brand called Bulnez in Brazil, offering 500 SKUs at Atacadão by 2028 to address purchasing power constraints among Brazilian consumers. The move fits a group-wide push: Carrefour-branded products already represent 37.4% of food sales and are growing 1.5 times faster than national brands, with a target of 40% by 2026. Private labels are central to the margin improvement strategy because they deliver higher gross margins and reduce supplier dependency.
2025 Results: France Up, Brazil Down
The strategic pivot arrives against mixed financial results. Group revenue reached €91.48 billion in 2025, up 2.8% on a like-for-like basis, with current operating income rising 11.3% to €1.1 billion excluding the Cora and Match integration. France and Spain drove the improvement.
Brazil told a different story. Current operating income fell to €709 million from €764 million the prior year — a decline in the very market where Carrefour is concentrating its capital. The weakness reflects continued pressure on Brazilian consumer spending and the high-interest-rate environment under the Banco Central’s tightening cycle. To address the cost of Brazilian debt, Carrefour took its Brazilian unit private and refinanced approximately BRL 9.7 billion (roughly €1.5 billion) of local-currency debt into euro-denominated instruments at lower rates, a transaction expected to generate approximately €100 million in annual cash flow and net income savings from 2026.
Financial Targets
Carrefour is targeting an operating margin increase from 2.6% in 2025 to 3.2% by 2028 and 3.5% by 2030, with cumulative net free cash flow of €5 billion over the 2026–2028 period. For 2026 specifically, the group targets more than 25 basis points of operating margin improvement versus 2025.
Cost reductions of €1 billion annually will fund the margin expansion. Savings will come from accelerating the franchise model in France — transferring 40 stores per year to franchisees — and from a major technology partnership with Vusion worth over €150 million over the plan’s duration. Vusion will deploy electronic shelf labels, connected rails and cameras across all French hypermarkets and supermarkets, automating labelling, out-of-stock detection and order picking.
Capital expenditure starts at €1.8 billion in 2026, rising to approximately €2 billion by 2030, with investment concentrated on Brazilian store expansion, store modernisation and AI, data and technology systems. Hypermarkets in France will see an additional €200 million per year for commercial upgrades, with 5% to 10% of sales area reallocated from declining categories toward growth verticals including home, pet care, health and beauty, and fresh food.
Market Scepticism
Investors were unimpressed. Carrefour shares fell 4.55% to €14.39 on the day of the presentation, the worst performer on the CAC 40. The stock remains nearly 29% below its level when Bompard took over in July 2017, and the operating margin has declined since the pandemic peak in 2020. The proposed 2025 dividend of €0.97 per share — up 5.4% from €0.92 — did little to offset concerns.
Oddo BHF maintained its “underperform” rating with a €12 price target, describing the 2025 publication as “disappointing” and the 2030 targets as “uneven.” The core tension is clear: Carrefour is betting heavily on a market where its profitability just declined, using savings from a French business facing intense competition from discounters, while simultaneously dismantling its geographic diversification by exiting Italy, Romania, Argentina and selling down its Carmila shopping centre stake. The Concordis buying alliance launched with Coopérative U will strengthen purchasing power, but whether that translates into margin in a deflationary French food market remains the open question Bompard’s third plan must answer.
Sources: Infomoney
