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Germany’s Merz told 500 industry bosses the EU should be open to revising or postponing the emissions trading system. Carbon permits fell 23% in ten days. Meanwhile, a Chevron deal south of Crete turned an old Greece-Turkey maritime dispute hot again.
Antwerp: Industry Gets the Microphone
The European Industry Summit in Antwerp on February 11 was designed to be a conversation about competitiveness. It became a coordinated assault on the EU’s flagship climate pricing mechanism. Over 500 business leaders and a lineup of EU heads of state — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Macron, Belgian PM De Wever, Dutch PM Schoof and Austrian Chancellor Stocker — gathered under the banner of the Antwerp Declaration, a lobby initiative now backed by more than 1,300 companies calling for urgent industrial reform.
The headline came from Merz. If the ETS is not achieving its goal of cutting emissions while enabling clean production, he told the room, the EU should be open to revising it — or at least postponing it, as it already did with ETS2 for buildings and transport. The room applauded. INEOS chairman Jim Ratcliffe delivered the summit’s most dramatic claim: 101 European chemical sites have closed since February 2024, costing 75,000 jobs and wiping €70 billion from the continent’s industrial base. European energy costs, he argued, remain four times higher than in the United States, and the continent is not cutting emissions but exporting them to regions with two to three times higher carbon intensity.
Carbon Prices Crater
The market reaction was immediate. EU carbon allowances fell 8% on February 12 — the steepest single-day decline since May 2022 — dropping to €72.18 per tonne. By February 16, the benchmark had slipped below €70 for the first time since August, down more than 23% from mid-January’s peak above €93. The sell-off spilled into German power markets, where March wholesale prices fell 2.4%.
The political pressure continued at the informal leaders’ retreat at Alden Biesen the following day. Italian PM Giorgia Meloni called for a thorough ETS review and a stop to financial speculation in the system. Czech PM Andrej Babis proposed a price cap at €30 per tonne — less than half the current level. Commission President von der Leyen defended the ETS at Antwerp, citing a 39% emissions reduction since 2005 alongside 71% economic growth, but acknowledged that member states invest less than 5% of auction revenues in industrial decarbonisation. A formal ETS review proposal is scheduled for Q3 2026, though any structural changes would require the full EU legislative process and are unlikely to take effect before 2028.
Chevron, Crete and a Familiar Dispute
While Western Europe argued over carbon pricing, a different energy tension resurfaced in the Mediterranean. On February 16, Chevron signed lease agreements with Greece for four offshore exploration blocks south of Crete and the Peloponnese, covering approximately 47,000 square kilometres. Chevron holds a 70% operating interest, with Greece’s Helleniq Energy at 30%. Seismic surveys are expected before year-end. The deal doubles Greece’s offshore exploration area and follows ExxonMobil’s Ionian Sea expansion in late 2025, deepening American energy involvement in the region.
Turkey’s Defence Ministry labelled the move a unilateral provocation that violates international law and the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime delimitation memorandum — an agreement Greece rejects because it ignores Crete. Ankara stated the exploration does not directly encroach on Turkey’s continental shelf but infringes on Libya’s declared maritime jurisdiction. Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou countered that the European Council has explicitly recognised the Turkey-Libya memorandum as inconsistent with the law of the sea, and that Chevron’s participation signals the company does not give weight to Turkish claims.
Two Fronts, One Problem
The industrial revolt against carbon pricing in Antwerp and the maritime standoff over Mediterranean hydrocarbons both circle the same structural question: what happens when Europe’s energy ambitions collide with its climate commitments. The Antwerp Declaration’s signatories want cheaper energy and lighter regulation now. The Chevron consortium is betting on eastern Mediterranean gas to fill part of the gap left by Russian supply. Environmental groups, including the Bellona Foundation, warned that climate action was conspicuously absent from the Alden Biesen conclusions — a retreat from the commitments that underpin Europe’s long-term competitiveness strategy.
Whether Merz and Meloni’s push translates into actual ETS reform — or remains what one carbon market analyst described as political posturing, given how slowly EU policy instruments actually change — will become clearer at the European Council on March 19–20. Until then, carbon permits remain headline-sensitive, and Europe’s industry lobby has the momentum.
