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A closed-door strategy session at the Capitol Hill Club laid bare the central tension of the Republican midterm campaign: a data-driven economic playbook that works on paper and a president whose Georgia speech wandered from tariff boasts to Medal of Honor quips and a victory declaration on affordability, prompting his own advisers to run what amounts to two parallel campaigns.
The Capitol Hill Club Briefing
On the evening of February 17, roughly 75 to 100 senior officials — including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — gathered at the Capitol Hill Club for a nearly two-hour working session hosted by Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair. Pollster Tony Fabrizio opened with approximately 25 slides of voter data, followed by Blair’s strategic assessment and a plan to deploy Cabinet members to 36 targeted House districts ahead of the November midterms.
Fabrizio’s verdict was blunt. The economy remains the dominant issue for persuadable voters — men, moderates, true independents, and Hispanic voters — but arguing that wages are rising does not resonate. Messages that tested strongest included banning congressional stock trading, health insurance pricing transparency, lowering prescription drug costs, extending the Trump tax cuts, and housing affordability. Taking credit for border enforcement barely moved the needle.
The Two-Campaign Problem
Blair outlined the historical headwinds: since the Second World War, the president’s party has lost House seats in all but a handful of midterms. He cited the Tennessee 7th District special election — salvaged through aggressive late-stage mobilisation — as a source of lessons. Blair acknowledged that Trump will communicate as he sees fit, and that everyone else must compensate with disciplined messaging. Attendees described the result as two separate but related campaigns running in parallel.
The need for that dual structure became evident two days later at Coosa Steel Corporation in Rome, Georgia. Trump highlighted tariff-driven investment, record employment, the S&P 500 crossing 7,000, and the Dow clearing 50,000. But the roughly hour-long speech veered into debunked claims about the 2020 election, an expressed desire to award himself the Congressional Medal of Honor, and the declaration that he had “won affordability” — a claim his own team walked back. He also issued a 10-to-15-day ultimatum to Iran and accused former President Obama of disclosing classified information about extraterrestrial life.
The Numbers Behind the Anxiety
The urgency is rooted in deteriorating numbers. Pew Research found Trump’s approval at 37 percent in late January, down from 40 percent in the autumn. A CNN/SSRS poll from February 17–20 put it at 36 percent, with approval among independents at a new second-term low and 68 percent of respondents saying the president has not focused on the country’s most important problems. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found 48 percent believe the economy has worsened under Trump; on tariffs, 64 percent disapprove, and on inflation, 65 percent.
Democrats have capitalised. The DNC claims nine special-election flips in districts Trump carried, and the party holds a six-point lead in congressional vote preference. In Georgia, Democratic Party chairman Charlie Bailey framed the midterm argument as straightforward economic populism: tariffs have raised grocery bills and healthcare costs, while Trump’s trade policies continue to generate friction with key allies.
The FDR Playbook and Its Limits
Blair has drawn explicit inspiration from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1934 campaign — one of the rare occasions since the Civil War when a president’s party gained House seats at the midterms. Roosevelt never claimed the Depression was over; his team argued conditions were improving and would continue under Democratic governance. Blair’s adaptation instructs surrogates to acknowledge voters are hurting while emphasising achievements — tax cuts, lower gas prices, foreign investment — and promising more through the “Great Big Beautiful Bill” tax package in Congress.
The strategy requires discipline — which is precisely where the Georgia episode illustrated the gap. The White House press team distributed a statement declaring “Republican leadership is building a brighter, more prosperous future for all Georgians,” while the president’s actual remarks generated headlines about self-awarded medals. Emory University political scientist Andra Gillespie captured the core question: whether Trump can still bend narratives in his direction when mounting trade tensions with Beijing add further uncertainty to the outlook voters will judge in November.
State of the Union: The Script Meets the Stage
Trump got his chance on Tuesday night, delivering a record-breaking State of the Union — one hour and 48 minutes, the longest address to a joint session of Congress in at least 60 years — that opened with the economy, precisely what Fabrizio’s data prescribed. He blamed Biden for rising prices and promoted the “Great Big Beautiful Bill” tax package, drawing standing ovations from Republicans. But the marathon speech also triggered clashes: Rep. Al Green was escorted out for holding a protest sign, while Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib interrupted the president by calling out from the chamber floor. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, delivering the Democratic response, hammered affordability as the central contrast. Whether the economic message breaks through a chaotic midterm landscape or is drowned out by spectacle remains the defining question for Republicans heading into November.
Sources: Financialpost, Theatlantic
