ECB

ECB held at 2.00% and raised 2026 inflation to 2.6%. Growth cut to 0.9%. Markets now price hikes, not cuts. Europe's energy import bill just doubled.

The STOXX 600 peaked at 628 on Feb 18. Five weeks later it sits at 575. Goldman forecast 8% returns. Lagarde says markets are too optimistic. What happened.

EUR/USD at 1.1506, down from 1.2016 in January. ECB revised inflation to 2.6% and growth to 0.9%. The euro is pricing stagflation. Here is what it means for your book.

Dombrovskis warned of a stagflationary shock that could cut EU growth by 0.6pp. Hours later the Commission blocked the fiscal escape clause. G7 meets Monday.

The Fed, BoE, ECB and BOJ all froze rates within 24 hours. The BoE voted 9-0 for the first time since 2021. Markets now price hikes, not cuts. The cycle is over.

Eurozone industrial output fell 1.2% year-on-year in January as Goldman cut growth to 1%. The ZEW crashed 58.8 points. The energy shock has barely started.

The ECB and Bank of England both decide on March 19. Both hold. The ECB releases updated staff projections - the first since Hormuz closed.

EUR/USD fell to $1.156 as oil topped $100 and the ECB was repriced from cuts to hikes in a week. The pair is now caught between dollar safe-haven bids and ECB hawkishness, both driven by the same Iran shock.