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Moscow is sharing satellite imagery with Tehran showing the locations and movements of US troops, ships and aircraft in the Gulf, according to reports by the Washington Post and CNN citing multiple US intelligence officials. Six American service members are already dead. The question Washington should be asking is not whether Russia is involved. It is what Russia is getting out of it.
The Washington Post broke the story on Friday, and CNN, NBC News and UPI independently confirmed it within hours. The intelligence Russia has provided consists primarily of imagery from its overhead satellite constellation, one source told CNN, describing the effort as “pretty comprehensive.” It includes the positions of US warships, military bases and aircraft across the Middle East theatre. Iran’s own surveillance capabilities have degraded sharply since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, US officials said, which makes the Russian feed operationally significant rather than merely symbolic.
No single Iranian strike has been conclusively linked to Russian targeting data. But the pattern is hard to ignore. Several Iranian drones struck locations where US troops had been stationed in recent days, CNN reported. On Sunday, an Iranian drone hit a makeshift facility in Kuwait housing American personnel, killing six US Army Reserve members from a unit based in Des Moines, Iowa. Whether Russian intelligence contributed to that specific attack remains unconfirmed. That it could have is the point.
What Washington Says. And What It Doesn’t.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, in a “60 Minutes” interview set to air Sunday, said the administration is “tracking everything” and that “anything that shouldn’t be happening is being confronted strongly.” He told reporters separately on Wednesday that Russia and China are “not really a factor” in the war. Those two statements sit uncomfortably together.
Trump, asked about the reports on Friday, called it “a stupid question to be asking at this time.” He added that US operations deserved a score of “12 to 15” out of 10. He did not address Russia’s role directly. He did, however, post on Truth Social that there can be no deal with Iran “except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” a formulation that effectively forecloses diplomatic off-ramps for the foreseeable future.
The US operation currently involves more than 50,000 troops, over 200 fighter jets and two aircraft carriers, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper confirmed this week. Administration officials have not said how long it will last. The Pentagon has requested additional intelligence support for “at least 100 days but likely through September,” Politico reported, a detail that suggests a war timeline far longer than the four weeks Trump initially signalled.
Moscow’s Calculus
The Kremlin has not denied the intelligence sharing. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday only that Moscow maintains “dialogue with representatives of the Iranian leadership” and will “certainly continue this dialogue.” He noted a “significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources” as a result of the conflict. That is as close to an admission of motive as Peskov ever gets.
The economics are not subtle. Every barrel of Iranian crude that cannot reach market is a barrel that Russia can price at a premium. Brent crude crossed $90 on Friday for the first time since April 2024, up roughly 24% since the war began. WTI hit $88. European TTF gas prices have surged nearly 60% in a single week. Russia, which still supplies residual pipeline gas to Europe and whose shadow fleet continues to move oil under various flags, is the single largest beneficiary of the energy dislocation this war has created.
Russia and Iran have cooperated on military technology for at least three years. Iran supplied Shahed drones and short-range ballistic missiles for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and helped establish a drone factory on Russian soil. Iran sought Russian nuclear assistance in return, CNN previously reported. The intelligence sharing is not a new relationship. It is a new phase of an existing one, activated at the moment Moscow perceived it could extract maximum leverage.
The China Variable
US intelligence also suggests China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components, three sources told CNN, though Beijing has so far stayed out of the conflict. China relies heavily on Iranian oil and has reportedly been pressuring Tehran to allow safe passage for Chinese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC’s selective enforcement of the closure, which blocks Western and Israeli shipping while reportedly allowing Chinese and Russian vessels through, has created a two-tier energy market that serves Beijing’s interests directly.
The Trump-Xi summit scheduled for March 31 was supposed to centre on trade. That agenda is now being rewritten. Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said Friday at a University of Hong Kong event that Iran “will probably be the number one issue” when the two leaders meet, making tariff negotiations “a little bit marginalized.” That is a significant diplomatic concession from Washington’s perspective, even if unintentional.
The Cost Nobody Budgeted For
The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated Thursday that the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost $3.7 billion, or roughly $891 million per day. Of that, $3.5 billion was unbudgeted. CENTCOM says it has struck more than 3,000 targets inside Iran. Israel claims to have carried out 2,500 strikes with over 6,000 weapons and destroyed 80% of Iran’s air defence systems. More than 1,300 people have been killed in Iran, including at least 181 children according to UNICEF. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes have killed at least 123 people according to the Health Ministry and displaced more than 95,000.
The economic blowback is accelerating. US gasoline prices jumped 34 cents in a week to $3.32 per gallon, the steepest rise since Russia invaded Ukraine in March 2022, AAA reported. Maersk became the second major shipping company to suspend Middle East operations. Iraq has cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day because it ran out of storage and cannot load tankers. Refineries in Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have reduced output or shut down. On Saturday morning, Saudi air defences intercepted 16 drones targeting Shaybah, a field producing one million barrels per day. It was what appears to be the first direct attack on Saudi oil production infrastructure since the conflict began.
Iran’s foreign minister rejected any ceasefire or negotiations on Friday. Trump demands unconditional surrender. Russia feeds targeting intelligence to one side and sells energy to the other. China pressures Iran privately while preparing materiel shipments. The UN Secretary-General warned the war “could spiral beyond anyone’s control.” At $891 million a day and counting, the question is no longer whether this war will reshape energy markets, fiscal policy and great-power alignments. It already has. The question is whether anyone in Washington has priced in what happens when it doesn’t end in four weeks.
