Tag:
Strait of Hormuz
Commodities
Brent Just Posted Its Steepest Monthly Gain on Record. Trump Said He Wants to Take Iran’s Oil.
Brent surged 55% in March, the largest monthly gain on record. Trump told the FT he wants to seize Kharg Island. WTI crossed $100. The war just changed shape.
Europe
EUR/USD Lost Four Cents in Two Months. The ECB Just Told You It Cannot Get Them Back.
EUR/USD at 1.1506, down from 1.2016 in January. ECB revised inflation to 2.6% and growth to 0.9%. The euro is pricing stagflation. Here is what it means for your book.
Commodities
Everyone Is Watching the Oil Price. The One That Matters Is Printed on a Bag of Urea.
Urea jumped from $490 to $700. A third of global fertiliser trade transits Hormuz. There are no strategic reserves. It is planting season. The supply is not arriving.
Economy
Japan Asked the IEA for More Oil. The First 400 Million Barrels Lasted Three Weeks.
Takaichi asked the IEA to prepare a second coordinated oil release. India's PMI hit a three-year low. Malaysia held two emergency meetings in two days. Asia escalated.
Economy
Asia Stopped Debating Oil Prices. It Started Rationing Fuel.
Bangladesh stationed troops at oil depots. The Philippines cut the work week to four days. Nepal is rationing cooking gas. Three weeks in, Asia is in emergency mode.
Commodities
Iran Just Turned the Strait of Hormuz Into a Toll Road. The Fee Is $2 Million Per Ship.
Iran is charging commercial vessels up to $2 million per voyage to transit Hormuz. There is no tariff schedule. The price is whatever Tehran says it is today.
Americas
Three Americas Currencies. Three Unrelated Bets. Zero Overlap.
CAD is a petro-hedge. MXN carry depends on Hormuz reopening in 60 days. BRL is an October election option. Running all three as a basket kills the edge.
Economy
ADNOC Can’t Ship Its Own Gas. Goldman Says Gulf GDP Could Drop 14%.
ADNOC cut LNG production because tankers cannot transit Hormuz. Goldman projects Qatar and Kuwait GDP down 14 percent if the war runs through April. Trump's deadline expires Monday.
