Tag:
Strait of Hormuz
Commodities
Trump Cancelled the Trip. The Spot Market Already Knew.
Trump pulled the US delegation from Islamabad as Brent hit $105. The EIA's $25 spot-futures gap is the signal the headline price isn't showing you.
Commodities
Iran Is Charging Tolls on Hormuz. The Blockade Just Became a Business Model.
Iran deposited its first Strait of Hormuz toll revenue as Brent hit $103, the dollar held two-week highs, and gold fell 10% since the war began in February.
Americas
The S&P 500 Hit a Record High on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,137. The same day, Iran seized two ships and fired RPGs at a third in Hormuz. The market is pricing peace. The strait is not.
Economy
India’s Central Bank Held Rates at 5.25 Percent. Then Brent Crashed 16 Percent
RBI kept repo at 5.25% on April 8. Forecasts assumed $120 oil and Hormuz disruption. Brent crashed 16% hours later. GDP cut to 6.9%, rupee at record 95.22.
Europe
The Fertilizer Nobody Is Watching Is About to Hit European Food Prices Hard
Urea jumped 50% since the Iran war began. Europe's spring planting season is running out of nitrogen. The fertilizer shock hasn't hit food prices yet. It will.
Economy
Three Tankers Just Transited Hormuz on a Route Iran Does Not Control. The Blockade Has a Crack.
Three Omani tankers bypassed Iranian waters through a southern coastal route on April 2. Windward data, insurance risks, and the April 6 deadline explained.
Commodities
Brent Just Posted Its Steepest Monthly Gain on Record. Trump Said He Wants to Take Iran’s Oil.
Brent surged 55% in March, the largest monthly gain on record. Trump told the FT he wants to seize Kharg Island. WTI crossed $100. The war just changed shape.
Europe
EUR/USD Lost Four Cents in Two Months. The ECB Just Told You It Cannot Get Them Back.
EUR/USD at 1.1506, down from 1.2016 in January. ECB revised inflation to 2.6% and growth to 0.9%. The euro is pricing stagflation. Here is what it means for your book.
