Americas
The S&P 500 Hit a Record High on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,137. The same day, Iran seized two ships and fired RPGs at a third in Hormuz. The market is pricing peace. The strait is not.
Americas
Trump’s Fed Pick Promised Independence. One Republican Is Blocking Him Anyway
Warsh told the Senate he would not be Trump's puppet. Warren called him one. Tillis blocked the vote. Powell leaves May 15. The Fed has no confirmed successor.
Asia Pacific
USD/JPY at 159. Tokyo Is Warning. The Yen Doesn’t Care
USD/JPY at 159. Tokyo warned "bold actions." The yen faded the move in an hour. BOJ meets April 28. The carry trade, not the dollar, is the problem.
Stocks
The Nikkei Hit a Record High. The Stock That Got It There Sells Air Conditioners
Elliott took a 3% stake in Daikin and demanded a ¥1 trillion buyback. The stock surged 14%. The Nikkei hit 59,518, a record. Japan's governance shift is real.
Economy
India’s Central Bank Held Rates at 5.25 Percent. Then Brent Crashed 16 Percent
RBI kept repo at 5.25% on April 8. Forecasts assumed $120 oil and Hormuz disruption. Brent crashed 16% hours later. GDP cut to 6.9%, rupee at record 95.22.
Europe
The Fertilizer Nobody Is Watching Is About to Hit European Food Prices Hard
Urea jumped 50% since the Iran war began. Europe's spring planting season is running out of nitrogen. The fertilizer shock hasn't hit food prices yet. It will.
Europe
Europe Just Used a Third of Its Emergency Oil Reserves. There Is No Second Shot.
The IEA used a third of its emergency reserves in March. Six European countries fell below the 90-day floor. Islamabad collapsed. There is no second release at this scale.
Asia Pacific
The Islamabad Talks Failed. Here Is What That Actually Means for the Economy.
Islamabad talks collapsed. Trump ordered a Hormuz blockade. Here is what the breakdown means for oil prices, the Federal Reserve and Monday's bank earnings season.
